Maine began marijuana policy reform nearly four decades ago when it decriminalized simple possession. It continued 15 years ago, becoming the first medical marijuana state in New England. Advocates believe voters will legalize retail marijuana and are working on 2016 ballot initiatives, but they disagree on how to do it.

Paul McCarrier registered a political action committee on Nov. 18 to legalize marijuana in 2016. The following day, he announced his plans as president of Legalize Maine. His liberal, anti-corporate goals sometimes sharply contrastMarijuana Policy Project plans to tax and regulate marijuana like alcohol. MPP, which is headquartered in Washington, D.C., had success passing that model in two of Maine’s largest cities, but McCarrier thinks it’s the wrong approach.

“Marijuana is a unique subject matter,” McCarrier said during a recent phone interview. He thinks generations of prohibition and a strong underground market make it unlike alcohol, so it should not be regulated the same.

Before either camp has a chance, however, they need to get their draft on the ballot.

Maine requires a petition with around 61,000 valid signatures for 2016 initiatives. While volunteers collect some of these, professional campaigns often hire specialized businesses to help. The inevitability of invalidated signatures means groups need to collect much more than the minimum number.

“We’re probably going to need anywhere between ninety and a hundred thousand signatures this coming year,” MPP’s Maine Political Director, David Boyer, said by phone.

Campaign costs add up quick. Boyer says MPP expects to spend a minimum of $100,000 on legalization and Legalize Maine’s budget is $300,000. Both declined to provide funding numbers, but campaign finance reports indicate they are starting from scratch. Recent confirmation of support by voters, however, has created headlines nationally and made Maine a prime target.

Voters in Maine’s largest city, Portland, approved a 2013 initiative legalizing marijuana with over 67 percent support. Similar initiatives made ballots in Lewiston and South Portland for 2014. In November, South Portland voters approved while Lewiston denied legalization. Despite the narrow loss in Lewiston, the overall numbers look good.

Between the three initiatives, 40,854 voters made their decision about legalized marijuana. Fifty-six percent officially approved, providing a statistic far more accurate than an opinion poll. Getting signatures just from those who already voted in favor would provide over a third of those needed.

The campaigns are still writing the official text for their initiatives, but they did share some information.

Legalize Maine’s plan would allow possession of up to two and a half ounces and the ability to grow up to six  mature and 12 immature plants. The measure would create legal framework for marijuana social clubs and would tax the plant at 8 percent.

Boyer conceded MPP’s initiative will likely resemble Amendment 64 in Colorado. He says that their plan will not affect the state’s medical marijuana system and will give current providers priority in the retail industry.

“They have the experience,” Boyer said, “they’ll need to meet the demand at time of launch.”

Washington State reported major shortages when it began retail marijuana sales in July. Advocates point to the state not taking advantage of its existing medical marijuana industry, something Amendment 64 covered. Boyer says MPP’s successes in Colorado and Alaska are an asset.

“We have the experience and expertise to craft a good initiative and make sure it passes.”

Legalize Maine received some unlikely support against national interests from Scott Gagnon of SAM Maine, a group that opposes legalization.

Gagnon responded to McCarrier’s plans in a statement saying that while he is concerned about legalization’s impact on youth, public health and the economy, he agrees it’s not in Maine’s best interest to “turn over its drug policy to a D.C.-based special interest group.”

Arizona state Rep. Ethan Orr wants to legalize marijuana. He wants it so badly he plans to continue the fight when he leaves public office in January.

After Orr lost his seat in a three-way election race tighter than a well-packed bowl, the Republican’s new plan is to team with advocates on a push for legalization in Arizona.

A report from the legislature on the likely prosperity from legalization will help.

Arizona lawmakers introduced a bill in April to tax and regulate marijuana like alcohol. Thirteen state representatives sponsored HB 2558, but it didn’t go far. After reading it into the record, leadership referred it to the House Rules Committee, where it languished.

The bill’s status on Legiscan, a legislation tracking website, lists the measure as “died in committee.” Before that happened, however, lawmakers ordered a study of retail marijuana revenue projections.

Jeremy Gunderson, a fiscal analyst for the Joint Legislative Budget Committee, estimates in the report obtained by The Cannabist that legalization would bring $48.3 million to state coffers in 2016. He based the number on the proposed bill’s revenue terms. Orr said he thinks that number is light.

“If you draft it in an intelligent manner,” Orr said by phone, “I think you’re going to generate $200 to $250 million in revenue.”

Gunderson used available data to estimate that the state would have about 543,000 marijuana users in 2016. He arrived at the revenue projection using Washington State Liquor Control Board reports on daily marijuana use estimates.

The WSLCB said that marijuana users consume between 0.3 and 1.6 grams of marijuana a day. After factoring in out-of-state visitors, Gunderson estimated Arizona would need more than 90 tons of marijuana annually to meet demand.

Orr would prefer legalization to go through the legislature so lawmakers can adjust regulations as needed. The state’s Voter Protection Act makes changes impossible on voter-approved legislation, and he points to lingering confusion in the medical marijuana industry over the initiative.

However, when asked if there’s any chance of the legislature passing a legalization bill, he responded with a flat, “No.”

“I have enough (votes) to pass it,” Orr said. “but I don’t have anyone who’s courageous enough to sponsor it.”

In 2010, voters passed Proposition 203 allowing medical marijuana, without legislative support. Orr is worried that history will repeat itself.

The Marijuana Policy Project (MPP), a national advocacy and lobbying group, drafted the 2010 initiative and funded the campaign to get it passed. The same group formed an Arizona ballot committee in September to begin fundraising for legalization in 2016, and Orr takes the pragmatic view that the initiative would pass.

Orr has been talking to dispensary owners and other interested parties about whether to get involved with the initiative and now that he is out of hist state job come January, he said he’s likely to head that direction.

MPP legislative analyst Chris Lindsey said in an email that Arizona is flushing marijuana revenue “down the toilet into the underground market,” by not legalizing.

“Marijuana should be produced and sold by legitimate, taxpaying businesses,” Lindsey said. “not cartels.”

Orr hasn’t worked with MPP, but Lindsey said that the departing state representative would be welcome. He pointed out that they want input from community leaders, especially ones with lawmaking experience.

The Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol turned in about 200,000 signatures on Nov. 12 to put its initiative on the 2016 state ballot. The group only needed a little less than 102,000 signatures, so many considered it a safe bet. The state has now made it official.

Secretary of State Ross Miller certified the signatures on Monday clearing the way to force the 2015 Legislature to consider the proposal or to put it up for a statewide vote, reports The Associated Press. The Coalition previously indicated its intention to have Nevada voters decide the issue when they choose a new president in two years. The strategy is being used in many states due to the predicted higher voter turn-out during a presidential election.

State Sen. Richard Segerblom and the Nevada Cannabis Industry Association‘s Joe Brezny submitted the petitions on behalf on the Coalition.

“The voters in Nevada clearly want a new approach to regulating marijuana,” Brezny said in a statement.

Marijuana advocates in states across the country are gearing up for the 2016 presidential election. Marijuana legalization became a popular issue during the 2014 mid-term elections and the success of initiatives in Oregon, Alaska and the District of Columbia has emboldened activists and lawmakers, alike.

The number of states with promising marijuana efforts in the works has jumped into double digits following the mid-term election successes.